Cause checks: injuries, weather, lineups

Before any play, we find out whether the line moved because of news. We call that a cause check.

What we check:

• Injuries, and the status of the quarterback or starting pitcher.
• Weather and wind for outdoor games.
• Lineups and who is resting.
• Coaching changes and suspensions.

Why it matters: a line that moves on public news is not a signal. It is the market doing its job. If a quarterback is ruled out and the spread moves two points, that move is already in the price.

Example only: a total drops from 47 to 44.5. The forecast now calls for 25 mph wind. That is information, and anyone can see it. We are not getting ahead of anything by betting the under at 44.5.

Timing:

• Checks run at the time a play is made.
• Football inactives are confirmed about 90 minutes before kickoff, and baseball lineups about two hours before first pitch, before a ticket goes in.
• Anything still unconfirmed is noted as something that could change the play.

Where it shows up in our plays: mostly where you cannot see it. The WHY stays on the market. The cause check decides whether there is a play at all.

What cuts against it: news breaks late, and no check catches everything.

Education only, not a guarantee. 1-800-GAMBLER.