Judge the bet, not the result

A good bet can lose. A bad bet can win. The score does not tell you which one you made.

How to judge a bet:

• Did you get a price at or better than your limit?
• Did the market close at a worse price than yours on the same number?
• Did you size it the way your plan says?

If the answers are yes, the bet was sound, win or lose.

Example only: you take a side at -105. The market closes at -120 on the same number. The team loses on a late score. You lost the bet and still made the right bet. Make that bet 100 times and the price gap is what you are paid for.

The reverse matters as much. You take -125, it closes -110, and the team wins. You were paid for a bet the market said was overpriced.

Where it shows up in our plays: we check closing line value over 100+ bets instead of grading each day by its record.

What cuts against it: this cannot become a way to wave off every loss. If the prices are not beating the close over a real sample, the process is the problem.

Takeaway: grade the decision. The result takes care of itself over time.

Price first.

Education only, not a guarantee. 1-800-GAMBLER.