What is variance? Why streaks are normal

Variance is the gap between what should happen over time and what does happen this week. It is bigger than most people expect.

How it works:

• Each bet is close to a coin flip with a price attached.
• Over a few bets, luck decides most of the result.
• Over many bets, the price you got starts to show.

Example only: a bettor who truly wins 55% at -110, betting 1u a game for 100 games.

• Expected result: about +5u.
• About two times in three, the result lands somewhere between -4.5u and +14.5u.
• About 3 times in 10, that bettor loses money over the 100 bets.

Same skill. Very different seasons.

Where it shows up in our plays: it is why we size in small units, why we don't judge a week by its record, and why we wait for about 100 bets before reading closing line value.

What cuts against it: variance explains bad stretches, but it is not an excuse for every one. A long run of bad prices is a process problem, not bad luck. That is what the closing line check is for.

Takeaway: a streak, hot or cold, is not proof of anything by itself.

Stay in the game.

Education only, not a guarantee. 1-800-GAMBLER.