THE PINNACLE LINE

Phase 4: How we pick

Why a pass is a result

Some days the right number of bets is zero. A pass is a decision, and it counts.

Why we pass:

Example only: a total where both books are loaded on the under, which says the books need the over, while the line has been moving down, which says respected money likes the under. Two signals, opposite sides. We pass.

On a quiet day the post says so in a line or two, with the reason.

Why it matters: every bet pays the book's cut. A bet with no edge costs about 4.5% of the stake on average at -110. Passing costs nothing.

Where it shows up in our plays: quiet-slate notes, and plays that disappear when the price runs.

What cuts against it: passing can become its own habit, and some passes would have won. We accept that. We are judged on the bets we make.

Takeaway: no play is a play.

Education only, not a guarantee. 1-800-GAMBLER.

Check yourself

Circa needs Team A and the other reference book needs Team B. We:

  1. Bet Team A
  2. Bet Team B
  3. Pass
Show the answer

C. Pass. When the books need opposite sides, it is a pass.

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