Circa vs. retail consensus

We watch two kinds of markets. They answer different questions.

Circa is our main reference book. It takes large bets, and our working view is that its line leads the market while other books copy it and adjust. That is a working view, not a proven fact. Pinnacle is our second reference for price.

Retail consensus is a blend of many US sportsbooks outside Nevada. It shows how the broad betting public is leaning: the share of bets and the share of money on each side.

What consensus is good for:

• Seeing where most of the public money sits.
• Seeing whether the retail market moved the same way as Circa.

What it cannot do:

• It blends many books, and how they are weighted is not published.
• It is a snapshot that changes through the day.
• It cannot tell you that Circa's line moved. Only Circa's own open and current numbers can.

Example only: Circa shows 75% of the money on Team A and the retail consensus shows 72% on Team A. Both markets are heavy on the same side.

Where it shows up in our plays: when a play mentions "retail consensus," it means the blend, never one book's exposure. Those plays are sized smaller than ones confirmed at a single book.

What cuts against it: agreement between two markets is still not a result.

Education only, not a guarantee. 1-800-GAMBLER.