Key numbers (3 and 7) and what an alternate costs

Not all half points are equal. In football, the ones around 3 and 7 matter most.

Why: football scores come in threes and sevens, so games end with a margin of exactly 3 or exactly 7 more often than any other number.

What that means:

• +3.5 beats +2.5 by more than "one point." At +3.5 a 3-point loss wins your bet. At +2.5 it loses.
• -2.5 is much better than -3.5 for the same reason.
• Moving from +4.5 to +5.5 crosses nothing important.

An alternate line lets you pick a different number at a different price. You pay for every half point.

Example only: Team B +2.5 at -110, or +3.5 at -135. You are paying 25 cents of price to turn a 3-point loss into a win.

Where it shows up in our plays: we buy a half point only when it lands on or crosses a key number. We also cap what we will pay for it, and that cap is still being reviewed against our results. When we take an alternate, the write-up says what it costs and what it buys.

What cuts against it: books know the key numbers too and charge for them. Pay too much and the better number is no longer the better bet.

Takeaway: buy the half point that matters, at a price that still makes sense.

Education only, not a guarantee. 1-800-GAMBLER.