Reading American odds and implied probability

Every price is a probability in disguise. Learn to convert it and you can see what a bet has to do to pay.

How it works:

• A minus price is what you risk to win 100. At -150 you risk 150 to win 100.
• A plus price is what you win on 100. At +150 you risk 100 to win 150.

Implied probability is how often the bet must win to break even at that price.

• Minus price: the price divided by the price plus 100. For -150 that is 150 / 250 = 60%.
• Plus price: 100 divided by the price plus 100. For +150 that is 100 / 250 = 40%.
• At -110 it is 110 / 210 = 52.4%.

Example only: a game priced -110 on both sides. Each side implies 52.4%. Add them and you get 104.8%, not 100%. The extra is the book's cut.

Where it shows up in our plays: every price limit we post is a break-even number. A worse price means the bet has to win more often.

What cuts against it: implied probability tells you what the price needs. It does not tell you the true chance. That part is the whole job.

Takeaway: read the price as a percentage before you read the pick.

Education only, not a guarantee. 1-800-GAMBLER.