Phase 1: Foundations
Most bets are priced at -110. You risk 1.10 to win 1.00. That built-in cut is the vig, and it is how a sportsbook gets paid.
Because of it, winning half your bets is not enough. At -110 you need to win about 52.4% to break even (110 divided by 210).
Example only, 100 flat bets of 1u at -110:
Many bettors see 55% as a strong long-run rate at -110. Even then, 45 of every 100 bets lose. If each bet is independent, a run of 5 or more straight losses shows up in about 65% of 100-bet stretches. A cold streak does not prove a broken process.
Where it shows up in our plays: the price limit and CLV exist because a few cents of price move the break-even number, and we want the best price available.
What cuts against it: these are averages. Any one stretch can look better or worse, and 100 bets is still a small sample.
Takeaway: win rate alone means nothing until you know the price.
Education only, not a guarantee. 1-800-GAMBLER.
At -110, about what win rate breaks even?
B. 52.4%. 110 divided by 210 is about 52.4%.
Not a guarantee. Plays and lessons are one bettor's process, shared for education. Legal age only. Bet only what you can afford to lose. This site takes no bets and handles no money. If betting stops feeling like a choice, call 1-800-GAMBLER. It is free and confidential. Questions, and how this site is funded · All lessons · Glossary · Email info@thepinnacleline.com