Reverse line movement and sharp money

Sometimes the line moves toward the side fewer people are betting. That is reverse line movement, and it can be a sign of larger, better-informed bets.

How it works:

• Most bets land on one side.
• The price moves toward the other side anyway.
• Something other than the count of bets moved it. Often that is the size of the bets.

Example only: 30% of the bets are on Team B at +3.5. The line moves to +3. More people want Team A, yet the book made Team B less attractive. Fewer bets, more weight.

How we use it. A move counts as likely sharp only when all three are true:

• Circa's line moved toward that side since it opened.
• At Circa, the share of money on that side is 10 or more points above the share of bets.
• The broader retail market moved the same way.

Where it shows up in our plays: it can support a play and add to its size. It never makes a play by itself, and the price limit still applies.

What cuts against it: "sharp money" is an inference. We cannot see who placed a bet. Small samples can fake the pattern, and a move can already be fully priced in by the time you see it.

Takeaway: fewer bets with more money behind them is worth a look, not a blind follow.

Education only, not a guarantee. 1-800-GAMBLER.