Phase 2: The market
A sportsbook "needs" a side when it loses less if that side wins. If most of a book's money is on Team A, the book is better off if Team B wins.
We look for games where both Circa and DraftKings carry heavy money (70%+ of the handle) on the other side from our play. Then both books need our side.
Sometimes we use a second read: Circa plus the national retail consensus (all US books outside Nevada) both carrying 70%+ on the other side. That shows the broader retail market leaning one way, not one book's exposure, so we size it smaller.
What it doesn't mean: it isn't inside information, a rigged result, or a guarantee. It describes the books' exposure, not the outcome.
Often the two books need opposite sides. When they do, we pass. A pass is a valid result.
Education only, not a guarantee. 1-800-GAMBLER.
A book "needs" a side when:
B. It loses less if that side wins. It describes the book's exposure, not the outcome.
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